How many more motortruck drivers are needed to equilibrize the requirement for truck transfer with the provision of capacity ? My response to this question for shippers procure long - length ( exterior of a give way metropolitan region ) dry van transportation , for both truckload and less than truckload ( LTL ) , is that approximately 25,000 truck drivers are needed . As a researcher at Michigan State ’s Broad College of Business , I will explicate how I arrive at this number , based on available datum , writes Jason Miller , Associate Professor of Logistics at Michigan State University .
The first whole step in answering this question is identifying the current floor of demand for truck transportation and making an assumption about the level of requirement over the coming months . My preferred quantity of requirement for truck deportation is an index I ’ve developed with my colleague Yem Bolumole at the University of Tennessee that uses information from the Census Bureau ’s and Bureau of Transportation Statistics ’ Commodity Flow Survey to figure implied demand for motortruck transportation . This data is based on industry turnout derived from monthly government statistics published by the Census Bureau , Federal Reserve Board , Bureau of Labor Statistics , and Bureau of Economic Analysis .
With these supposition about the demand made , I will now turn to the uncommitted data on employment . These data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ( BLS ) through the Current Employment Statistics ( CES ) broadcast , which survey approximately 144,000 byplay and government means , representing just about 440,000 establishments ( or alone business locations ) .
A few caveats about these data are in order . First , the system used to classify hand truck shipping establishments , the North American Industrial Classification System ( NAICS ) , is a rather aggregate position liken to how we believe about sort trucking companies within the industry . For instance , the NAICS groups hand truck transportation establishments engaged in long - catch fare of flatbed burden , refrigerated freight , or chemicals into the same sphere ( NAICS 48423 : Specialized , Long - Distance Truck Transportation ) . However , we would consider these decided industry sector . Given the NAICS maps clearest to dry out van transportation system via the general freight designation , and then splits world-wide freight into truckload ( NAICS 484121 ) and less - than - truckload ( NAICS 484122)—my analysis will focus only on these two subsectors .
secondly , the CES program does not distinguish between establishments that are for - hire company versus establishments that are private fleets . Because of this , these data point probably include some private fleets , with the caveat that it would be uncommon for a company to have one or more unequaled establishments that chiefly perform general freightage , recollective - space motortruck transportation but only do so on a individual fleet basis .
Third , the CES information counts all employees at an brass , which means these information include dock workers , automobile mechanic , dispatcher , accountants , etc . , hire by an establishment that occupy in truck transportation .
fourthly , the CES data does not admit self - employed workers , which means they miss many proprietor - operator ( either leased subcontractors or true independents ) . To the extent that ego - employed workers today exceed what we observe in 2018 , a potential possibleness throw record business organisation applications in transportation and repositing coupled with record newfangled operating authority grants , the CES data will overstate the order of magnitude of the utilisation disruption .
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